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As the first quarter of 2026 comes to an end, Canadian fleet operators are navigating renewed volatility across key cost drivers. Used vehicle values have opened the year stronger than expected, creating opportunity in fleet remarketing, while acquisition strategies continue to evolve amid ongoing affordability pressures and shifting North American EV policy dynamics. At the same time, escalating conflict in the Middle East is pushing oil prices higher and reintroducing fuel-price uncertainty into operating budgets. This quarter reinforces the importance of disciplined timing, flexible procurement planning, and proactive fuel management as fleets position for the months ahead.
Remarketing: Wholesale used vehicle values started 2026 stronger than seasonal norms, increasing the importance of when fleets choose to sell, where vehicles are sold, and which vehicle types are prioritized.
Acquisitions: In Canada, the Incentives for Zero-Emission Vehicles (iZEV) program remains in place, continuing to support EV adoption in 2026. However, with U.S. federal clean-vehicle tax credits no longer available for vehicles acquired after Sept. 30, 2025, North American procurement dynamics are shifting, placing greater emphasis on utilization, energy strategy, and vehicle availability rather than upfront incentive capture.
Fuel: Energy-market volatility is back in the spotlight. The Middle East conflict is elevating oil-price risk and pushing fleet fuel costs higher, particularly for diesel-heavy operations.
Remarketing: Wholesale used vehicle values started 2026 stronger than seasonal norms, increasing the importance of when fleets choose to sell, where vehicles are sold, and which vehicle types are prioritized.
Acquisitions: In Canada, the Incentives for Zero-Emission Vehicles (iZEV) program remains in place, continuing to support EV adoption in 2026. However, with U.S. federal clean-vehicle tax credits no longer available for vehicles acquired after Sept. 30, 2025, North American procurement dynamics are shifting, placing greater emphasis on utilization, energy strategy, and vehicle availability rather than upfront incentive capture.
Fuel: Energy-market volatility is back in the spotlight. The Middle East conflict is elevating oil-price risk and pushing fleet fuel costs higher, particularly for diesel-heavy operations.
The first quarter of 2026 has brought a shift in tone for fleet operators. Used vehicle values opened the year stronger than seasonal norms, creating short-term remarketing opportunities for fleets able to act quickly and strategically. At the same time, escalating conflict in the Middle East has driven oil prices higher, reversing the fuel cost relief many fleets experienced late last year and reintroducing volatility into operating budgets.
Meanwhile, acquisition strategies in the U.S. are adjusting to a new reality. While the Incentives for Zero-Emission Vehicles (iZEV) program remains in place in Canada, U.S. federal EV credits are no longer available for vehicles acquired after September 30, 2025. This leaves fleets recalibrating procurement decisions around utilization, infrastructure readiness, and long-term operating economics rather than upfront incentives. Ordering discipline and buildability considerations are once again central to 2026 planning.
In our Q1 report, we break down the latest fleet management trends in three areas: fuel, acquisitions, and remarketing.
Conflict in the Middle East drives renewed price volatility
For fleets, the most immediate shift in early 2026 has been the return of fleet fuel price volatility. Escalating tensions in the Middle East has increased oil supply risk, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global crude oil shipments.
In Canada, fuel prices have seen a steep upward trajectory. National average retail gasoline rose from approximately 135.4¢/L in January to an average of 173.9¢/L on March 24. This marks an increase of 38.5¢ (28.4%).
Diesel pricing has also moved higher. National average diesel rose from approximately 163.9¢/L in January to 169.3¢/L in February, and wholesale market pressures suggest continued upward momentum into March.
U.S. retail gasoline has similarly risen from $2.796 per gallon on January 5 to $3.977 per gallon by March 24, an increase of $1.18 per gallon (approximately 25%). Diesel has climbed even more sharply, moving from $3.477 per gallon to $5.071 per gallon over the same period, a $1.59 per gallon increase (roughly 46%).
The speed and scale of these increases underscore how quickly geopolitical events can translate into higher operating costs, particularly for diesel-intensive fleets where fuel represents a significant share of total operating expense.
Supply disruptions compound an already tight market
The conflict in the Middle East is adding pressure to an oil market that was already tightening. Even before the late-February escalation, global oil supply had slipped. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that world oil supply fell by roughly 1.2 million barrels per day in January, driven in part by severe winter weather in North America, while export constraints and outages in countries such as Kazakhstan and Venezuela further limited flows. At the same time, benchmark crude oil prices were already climbing, with Brent crude (one of the major oil pricing benchmarks) rising roughly $10 per barrel over the course of January.
In other words, the market entered Q1 with less buffer than many expected. When geopolitical risk intensified, prices reacted quickly. The combination of reduced supply, refinery maintenance cycles, and heightened concern over potential shipping disruptions has amplified short-term price swings, and left fleets more exposed to sudden cost increases than they were just a few months ago.
Baseline fleet fuel forecasts now carry explicit risk premiums
Forecasts still offer a useful budgeting starting point for 2026, but recent updates show higher price expectations and more explicit warnings about geopolitical risk. In its March 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration revised its 2026 Brent forecast to $79 per barrel and noted that prices could remain above $95 per barrel in the near term under current conflict assumptions.
Forecast agencies have acknowledged that any sustained disruption to Middle East production or shipping lanes could push prices above baseline projections. For fleet managers, 2026 fuel planning should shift from point forecasts to scenario-based budgeting, with fleets building in contingency ranges of 10–15% to account for potential volatility and pairing this with defined operational risk mitigation strategies.
What fleet leaders should do now
Shift to scenario-based fuel budgeting: Build 10–15% contingency ranges into fuel budgets and regularly update forecasts as market conditions evolve.
Prioritize fuel efficiency and route optimization: Identify high-consumption vehicles, reduce idle time, and optimize routing to mitigate rising fuel costs, especially for diesel-heavy operations.
Evaluate fuel strategy by segment: Reassess vehicle mix, including opportunities to right-size or transition select routes to alternative fuels or EVs where operationally viable.
Early spring bounce raises the stakes on timing, channels, and segment mix
Wholesale used vehicle values in the U.S. opened 2026 with unusually strong momentum relative to normal seasonality. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI), a key measure of wholesale used vehicle pricing, rose to 210.5 in January (+2.4% YoY and +2.4% MoM), meaning fleets are seeing higher-than-expected resale values, contrary to the typical January decline of about -0.2%. Black Book’s weekly wholesale reporting for late January also pointed to unusual early-year appreciation in the 2–8-year-old vehicle market.
But this isn’t a market moving in unison. Performance varies widely by segment and powertrain. EV pricing is still following a different path than non-EV vehicles, and luxury and compact models aren’t behaving the same way either. In Canada, used wholesale pricing indicators were softer early in the year, reinforcing that North American fleet remarketing strategy needs market-specific triggers rather than a single headline view.
What fleet leaders should do now
Set monthly/quarterly gates to accelerate vs. hold units based on segment-level signals (not just an overall index).
Update residual value assumptions by market and powertrain, particularly when comparing EVs and internal combustion engine vehicles.
Move quickly. Reducing vehicle reconditioning time and staying flexible on sales channels can mean the difference between strong bids and missed opportunities.
Tariffs and compliance are significant variables for service and heavy fleets
Trade policy remains a meaningful acquisition variable, particularly for medium/heavy-duty vehicles, buses, and parts with imported content. A U.S. Department of Commerce process tied to Section 232 tariffs introduces additional documentation and compliance steps, which can drive up delivered vehicle costs and create potential delays in the supply chain.
With federal EV credits off the table in the U.S., fleet acquisition economics shift toward utilization, energy, and vehicle availability
For many fleets, the biggest acquisition change in early 2026 is that federal clean-vehicle purchase credits are no longer available for vehicles acquired after Sept. 30, 2025. That means EV procurement value propositions must stand on operating economic factors such as route fit, charging readiness, managed energy cost, and uptime, rather than one-time federal incentive capture.
In parallel, OEMs are visibly adjusting EV capacity and product plans. Public disclosures from large automakers point to ongoing near-term volatility in EV production timing and allocations, which increases the risk of mid-year build changes for standardized fleet programs. Meanwhile, acquisition risk is increasingly showing up in tighter ordering windows, ongoing allocation constraints, and potential delays for vehicles requiring specialized upfits, rather than a broad vehicle shortage.
Lead times improve but ordering windows remain vulnerable
Order-to-delivery (OTD) timelines have stabilized compared to the peak disruption years, but they have not returned to pre-2019 norms. Industry fleet reporting indicates OTD times improved to roughly 15 weeks by the end of 2025, with projections suggesting a 2026 average closer to ~20 weeks from at least one fleet solutions provider. Importantly, reporting also notes that improvement is slowing and constraints persist in select vehicle categories.
Beyond average lead times, ordering “cliffs” remain a material operational risk. For example, Stellantis implemented a MY26 order cut-off for certain Chrysler minivans, with fleet ordering closing January 28, 2026, urging fleets to submit orders to avoid disruption.
For fleet managers, while systemic shortages have eased, acquisition timing risk has shifted from broad supply collapse to model-specific constraints and hard ordering deadlines. Proactive forecasting and early order submission remain critical to protecting replacement schedules.
What fleet leaders should do now
Stress-test every EV program against a ‘no federal credits’ reality: ensure the business case is driven by utilization, energy strategy, and duty-cycle fit.
Freeze high-risk specs earlier and formalize substitutes. Treat buildability as dynamic through 2026.
For vocational/heavy segments, map tariff exposure and documentation requirements into vendor negotiations and delivery forecasts.
Move from annual ordering to rolling forecasting: treat order-to-delivery (OTD) as a managed KPI and plan for ‘ordering cliffs.’
Looking across the key fleet management trends, the first quarter of 2026 has underscored just how quickly market conditions can shift. As you plan for the months ahead, flexibility remains essential. Take advantage of remarketing strength where it exists, stay proactive with acquisition planning as OEM production and ordering windows evolve, and build fuel budgets that account for continued volatility. The fleets best positioned for 2026 will be those that combine disciplined planning with the agility to respond as conditions change.
If you’re looking for deeper insights tailored to your business, reach out to our Strategic Advisory Services team who can help you navigate these fleet industry trends with confidence.